Does History Repeat Itself ? : Upcoming 19th Centu...

ANALYSES /BALKAN

Source: The Bosnia Times

When we look back to 19th century Balkans reality, almost through whole century we can see that it was divided between the three centers of power. In the 19th century these centuries were İstanbul-Moscow-Vienna, last one later in combination with Berlin. It seems that this ‘’triangle’’ is going to be repeated in the coming years in slightly different form.

By: Jahja Muhasilović, thebosniatimes.com

Among the historians there is a one unproved and unnoficial theory that history is always repeating itself. It is hard to prove this theory, but what is for sure is that we are entering the 19th century like reality in different  forms, but with the same players in the Balkans. Other famous and theory much easier to prove among themodern times historians is that processes which are happening in the  20th and 21st centuries are actually continuation and final resolvement period for the processes which started in the 19th century. Balkans we are entering in the next decades seems like proving these two theories, especially when it comes to foreign interests and fight for the domination in the region.

When we look back to 19th century Balkans reality, almost through whole century we can see that it was divided between the three centers of power. In the 19th century these centres were İstanbul-Moscow-Vienna, last one later in combination with Berlin. It seems that this ‘’triangle’’ is going to be repaeted in the coming years in slightly different form.

Actually this ‘’repeated’’ 19th century Balkans starts becoming reality after 2008 economic crisis broke out. It affected EU’s primal ideological base and the most important driving force economy, very hard. So, Union’s dominant economic power Germany had to focus on saving some member countries, and the Union as a whole had to redirect its strenght to interior problems. EU now have full hands and big problems inside the club which they have to deal with, so this created kind of vacuum in the Balkans, which opened the space for other two rising players and enabled them to much more easily enter the region with their booming economies at home, as the Ottoman empire’s crisis paved the way for the rising European powers in the first place Austria and Russia, to spread their influence to region in the in 19th century. Today these new or to be more specific old players are Russia and Turkey. It seems that it is natural for them to be active participant in the shaping of the Balkans then being passive, next to Western and Central European powers which are already present in the region.

Instead of 19th century Vienna and Berlin we have today Brussels centered European Union, which same as it was in the 19th century seems like the most important and influental axis of power in the region, playing the European integration card to include the region in its club, as it was playing the ‘’building constitutional nation state’’ and bringing ‘’civilization and equality’’ card in the 19th century for the same goal. Different from other EU’s foreign influence areas, the Balkans are especially dominated by the German speaking countries. The real power behind the curtain of the EU’ s Balkans integration policy actually is Germany and in some aspects Austria also. This is true for Trade, Financial, Migration, Culture, Sports and almost all other sectors. Behind the veil of EU, these countries are actually playing the most dominant role, without minimazing the role of other powers in the region like UK or France. But didn’t the ‘’other powers’’ also had some influence and role in the region in the 19th century also? They maybe even had much bigger influence and role then they have today. So this brings to conclusion that from the ‘’western’’ sides this time we have much bigger domination in the region, of those from the German speaking countries then there was in the past.

However with or without German influence ‘’Westerners’’ are still trying to include region in their system of value as they were trying in the 19th century, to save it from ‘’backwardness’’ of the Ottoman civilization, like they are saving the region today from the backwardness of the nationalism, which also is 19th century European product, and they see it like it is something that was invented in the Balkans and not imported from the Europe and which for European perspective now is outdated and is guilty for all bad things happening in the region, as it was also trying to save the region century later from also other European product called Communism. So maybe day will come Europe will try to save Balkans from backwardness of the democracy and market economy. However last economic crisis opened space for manouevre to other players and seems like is bringing to an end the EU’s hegemony in shaping the regions future.

When it comes to Russia, it never actually stoped being active in the region, it just changed few ideological forms through past. After fall of Russian Empire it reshaped it’s playing card in the Balkans, from acting as a protector of the Ortodox population of the Balkans to supporting the Communist movements and Communist states in the region. After fall of the Soviet Union this power axis continued influencing the region as a Russian Federation through energy hegemony, but again not leaving its old style, which would be favorizing the Orthodox population. Region is almost totaly dependent on Russian gas, which renewed Russia’s importance and brought it again soft power status. After energy sector some moves are done in financial and banking sectors. Example is Russian Sberbank entering the Balkans markets very easily and in very short time positioned itself among already present German and Austrian banks in the first place, even went that far to buy Austrian Volksbank. Start of diversifying the influence to other sectors then energy is positioning Russia and minimizing the power and role of the EU which has the most diversive influence and domination in the region including almost all sectors important in order to be dominant axis of power.

Third player in the future, that could play important role in the Balkans is Turkey. This country whose geographical borders are for a almost two thousand years one entity with the Balkans is a a successor of the Ottoman empire which for the many centuries had central role in the Balkans and was almost totaly absent for a nearly century as a important player in the region, looks like regaining its power and the role back again. In the last few years we saw some moves by the Turkish goverment which proves their intentions to influence the region. This country which has booming economy, already passed Russia’s economic growth, is seen as a natural player in the region, but still didn’t come out of the ‘’potential power’’ clothe, and put on ‘’soft power’’ clothe, because of not having clear Balkans vision. One of the Turkey’s faces among many other faces is that Turkey is also a Balkans country, which makes job much easier fot the country, because it is already by geography positioned in the region. Turkey is Balkans country with huge population growth rate and even today has bigger population then all Balkans countries combined. In the future this gap will be much bigger, so we could expect in some 30 years that Turkey will have two times more population then Balkans as a whole. Turkey also has large Balkans diaspora inside the country, and relatively large Turkish diaspora in the Balkans, which from the aspect of building the bridges between the two entities is very important factor. Turkey is expected to play important role in the future in peninsula’s energy segment. Huge Nabucco project sponsored also by Europe, which should pass through Turkey and Balkans is goaled to minimize dependency on Russia in the energy sector. Project was also of big importance for the EU, whose number one source when it comes to gas is Russia. This brings Turkey and EU to close cooperation because of Russian threat, in very similar scenario of the 19th century when European states assisted Ottomans against the rising Russia. As a indirect consenquence gas line was aimed to rise Turkey’s importance for the Balkans. Turkey started acting independently from the energy allies in Europe, and started giving importance to the so called Blue Stream route, which is delivering gas to Turkey directly withouth passing through the third countries. This maneuver forced EU to search for the alternative routes through Ukraine, a move that from the European perspective is very dangerous, because of unstability of the Ukrainian goverment, which always is under big threat of becoming Russian outpost. Not just energy but other economical and financial factors are slowly positioning Turkey in the region, and not to forget Turkish soaps which in short time became unavoidable relaxation tool for the Balkans population and successufully  doing its important task in breaking long time distorted Turkish image as a unwanted element in the Balkans policy.

True or not, theories of repaeting of the history and continuation and closing of the 19th century started processes in the next two centuries seems proved in the Balkans case. Last Balkans triangle finished in the blood, and all axis sides failing in their intentions, soon saw themselves also entering the first World War with all sides suffering huge losses, even some saw their own centuries long empires going to history’s graveyard. When it comes to region, Balkans triangle vertices having their hands in the region, ended up in its famous process which is wearing regions name and originating in the 19th century, so called balkanization process. Maybe living this process is region’s unavoidable destiny, remains to be seen in the future.