It seems that US-led Coalition attacks against the ISIL in Iraq and Syria is speeding up diplomatic reality which was to be expected and could be foreseen for Israel and Iran for a very long time. Not so long time ago, everyone was expecting Western countries in alliance with Israel to conduct full-scale attack against Iran because of Iranian nuclear program. Even in those days, it was not well calculated step for Western countries and Israel to conduct an attack of that scope for dozens of reasons. Probably both Israel and Western powers led by US were and are aware of the fact that Iran is more than an ordinary Middle Eastern country.
Iran is too strong for the West and Israel
Let’s elaborate why Iran is too strong for Israelis and Western powers. To attack one independent country, aggressor should rely not just on its own military strength, but in one certain moment of the invasion, attacker should count on internal crumble, in order for his mission being successful. As it was case with Iraq, Libya, Serbia and many other countries. Level of dissatisfaction for the government and the ruling class was on very high in those countries prior to the invasion, so the attack from outside was relatively easy to be conducted. When Western powers were invading other countries, they knew that in one moment people will overthrow the government themselves, so invasion in modern times actually is sort of assistance for the locals overthrowing the government, rather then full conquest. Conquering country in modern warfare almost is impossible, especially in countries where governments have high level of support among the people, as the case with Turkey and Gezi park protests proved, but elaborating this statement is matter for some other disscusion. So Iran is not an ordinary country formed artificially during the colonial times and it is not country that doesn’t have any deeper roots in the history. What does this mean? It mean that it is not country in which its local people are dreaming of some different and utopian form of state that was existing in the past, because of the people’s dissatisfaction of present form of state governance, even though there are some more secularly oriented parts of the society in Iran, but vital strength of this part of the population is outside the Iranian borders, neither Iran is the tool of serious dividing from other exterior irredentist ideas. By modern language, Iran is not banana state. Iran is not ruled by unsophisticated dictator with no vision and political goal other than keeping himself on power, as it is the case in many other countries in the Middle East. With Iran simply it is not the case. Iran is not country with weak central government. Iran is organized on idea rather then on dictatorship having not other vision and purpose then sustaining authoritarianism of one ruler and preserving privileges of loyal elite around the authoritarian leader. But this statement doesn’t mean that Iran through time didn’t evolve into a dictatorship.
Besides this fact that it is one of the most deep-rooted countries in the world, Iran is a huge country by area. It is more than double size of Turkey and almost four times larger than Iraq. Iran is a country of almost 80 milion people, by population it is almost three times more than Iraq. It is a country with independent military technology and very well trained soldiers and well prepared military infrastructure for eventual invasions. Iranian army is relatively strong army and not lacking efficiency and not being dependent on import of the Western arms as some Arab countries for instance are. Iran is a country with long statehood and long history of defending its borders against outside threats. What Iranian army was doing in last three decades was preparing itself for full-scale military attack from outside and probably already having defence plans for all possible attack scenarios. Iranian army has good experience how to fight in wars. They fought Iraqis for almost ten years. Iran through long period of western demonization learned how to survive under the pressure of economic sanctions, developing domestic production infrastructure. So Iran definitely is not an ordinary Middle Eastern country like Iraq for example is and West probably knew that it is not going to be a piece of cake as invading Iraq was.
Iran’s strength lies outside of its borders
Probably the main reason why the West and Israel never attacked Iran is the fact, that the strength of Iranian government lies not in Iran, but outside of its borders. Iran has too strong military, religious and cultural presence in neighboring countries. Let’s star with the Iranian closest neighbor Iraq. After US invaded Iraq and overthrew Saddam’s regime, Shiite influence on Baghdad government dramatically rose. This influence was not just on the political level, but it has a strong base among the Iraqis of whom the largest proportion actually is of Shiite affiliation. Iraqi Shiites formed very strong militia groups like Mahdi’s Army, but besides militias over the time Shiites which are the most crowded population in Iraq, through politics managed to minimize the role of Sunnis and Kurds in Iraqi politics, which led to growth of Iranian influence, so government in Baghdad became kind of puppet regime of Iranians.
There is also Syria, which is in very devastated shape because of the war that is lasting since 2011. In Syrian conflict, Iran is unconditionally supporting Assad’s regime, aware of the fact that if Assad’s regime falls Iran could be next target. Survival of Assad’s regime and turmoil in Syria is prolonging the life of Iranian regime, so Iran has much to lose or to gain from the Syrian question. That is why Iran didn’t hesitate much and sent immediately sent help to Assad's regime in a form of Iranian Revolutionary Guard’s special forces called Quds Forces which at the moment are fighting alongside Assad’s troops against Sunni armies. Probably it was obvious even before which side Iran would prefer. From the Iranian perspective, they had to jump in to save Assad’s regime because they definitely would be a next target. In this situation, West and Israel can’t afford to attack Iran, unless Syrian Civil War comes to its end.
Iran is also very present in Lebanon, where roughly a third of the population is Shiite. This fact gives high level of political power to the local Shiites, which besides the fact they are represented in high proportion in demographics, Shiites have probably the strongest and the most well organized militias in the world in form of Hezbollah. If Iran was to be attacked, factor of Hezbollah was very important obstacle for Israelis, who once had bad experience fighting guerilla war with them in Lebanon.
So Iran has very strong influence in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon. When it comes to Iranian influence mainly these three countries are mentioned, but Iran also has a strong influence among other Shiites in the region besides already mentioned countries. People mainly forget that close to half of the Yemen’s population are Zaydi Shiites living on the Saudi-Yemeni border region and that there is a strong theory that Iran is supporting Zaydi militias, who oftenly are organizing uprisings along the border region. By having strong influence on Shiite militias in Yemen, Iran can cause lot of troubles to Saudi Arabia, which probably is the country most scared of Iranian influence and is the most serious competitor of Iranians for the dominance in the region. Even Saudi Arabia has strong Shiite minority in eastern parts of the country not far from the Iranian borders.
Another sphere of influence for the Iranian regime is oil-rich Gulf region, especially Bahrain is a country led by minority of Sunnis ruling over Shiite majority. In the first months of Arab Spring, Shiites protested against Sunni government, asking for more rights. Question of Bahrainian Shiites still is very sensitive issue and Iran definitely can play very important role in future political developments not jut in Bahrain but all the Gulf countries. Israel’s western allies understood that Iran is very capable of flaming vast area from Central Asia to the eastern coast of Mediterranean and mountains of Yemen. This means that West and Israel could easily be stretched over the frontline which probably would be over three thousand kilometres long and this long distance was impossible to be controlled and certainly would suck out huge amount of money from Western economies which already are in deep economic crisis. Not to mention an economy of size like Israel’s is, it is insanity to enter the war of this scope, especially when taking in account an internal instability in this case of Palestinian question which is very far from any kind of resolvement. There was certain fear for the security of US army bases in the region and oil fields in Gulf countries which are under the range of Iranian missiles.
There was also a huge risk of Iranians closing Hormuz channel from which about quarter of World’s oil is passing. This move by Iranians who would be capable of doing such a move would even more deepen already existing economic crisis in the world and lead to some existing tensions to probably evolve into the new conflicts. Scenarios announcing the possible third World War if West attacks Iran are probably not far from reality when all these facts are took into account. Iranians being under the heavy bombardment of US-Israeli Coalition would be more radicalized and under despair would be ready for radical moves of this proportions. So war eventually would evolve from regional conflict to a crisis which would be felt very heavily all over the globe.
There are so many reasons why West and Israel couldn’t attack Iran, but there is no much space to elaborate them all. Generally speaking Iran was always big bite for Israel and Western countries and probably diplomats in the West were aware of this fact, so they constantly were imposing sanctions and deepening them while waiting clerical regime to collapse form inside. But Iranian regime survived.
After more constructive dialogue started among two sides, something what was to be expected started occurring. Both sides started realizing that in this situation of constant tension is harming all sides and they slowly entered the era where some things are to be settled.
What is the reason for alliance?
If we go few years back, to a period before Arab Spring occurred, there was less complicated situation in the Middle East then it is now. There were less factors and less unknowns then there are today. More or less every Muslim country was on same standing point that, for the almost all problems in the region source of the problem was Israel. Which is for a big part probably true. Muslim states in the region had their own inter conflicts and distrusts of each others. Point at which every Muslim state agreed was the issue of Israeli threat and problems its creation opened in the region. Support for the Palestinian cause was something where almost every state at least in verbal form was supporting.
Protests and wars that came with so-called Arab Spring just exploded all over the region and almost four years latter it brought to the situation where some Western countries and probably in the future Israel also, have started building cooperation with Iran. This new evolving cooperation is seen in recent calls on Iran to give its support to newly formed coalition against rising threat of ISIL. But something like this to happen was logical many years ago.
Why Israel and Western Powers on one side and Iran on the other were logical allies?
Probably it is not right to say that Arab Spring is the only reason for Iranians getting closer with West today and probably with Israel in the future, but certainly it is a strong catalyst of this process. To understand correctly why this is happening, we always have to keep in our minds that, both Israel and Iran, especially first one, geographically are located in Sunni world, which predominantly is Arab, so this regional reality from the very beginning of formation of Israeli state had potential of being hostile towards newly founded country.
When it comes to Iran it is also found in an alien and hostile environment, which openly got disclosed with Syrian Civil War. Now it is found in Sunni and dominantly Arab world, which limited Iranian foreign policy manoeuvre and tied Iranian regime to the regional Shiites. Once Iranians had Palestinian cause which they harshly supported and which in the eyes of the Sunni Arabs was decreasing distrust towards the regime. This reality even became more disclosed after Iranians supported Assad against the will of Sunni Arabs in Syria.upr
Factor of rising Turkey in the region is also very important, both for Israel and Iran. Turkey which after Mavi Marmara mainly has bad diplomatic relations with Israel, Turkey for Iran is, if not enemy at least competitor in the region. Even if today this two countries are not openly enemies, one day relations between two historically competitors for the dominance in the region could evovle into unfriendly relation and open conflicts for the dominance in the region, because today both countries with their policies towards the region are carrying many germs of possible future conflicts. These two countries disagree on many fundamental foreign policy issues, among which the most important one is Syrian question. Probably a list of the disagreements is going to expand in the future. The role of Turkey as a catalyst of Iranian and Israeli alliance is topic for the second part of this text.
How things can dramatically change in geopolitics is best seen in fact that today good relations with Iran is one of the exit roads for Israel in the first place and the West’s Middle East policy. One day situation very easily can develop in that direction that keeping close alliance with Iran could become only exit road and salvation for Israel in the region and vice versa.
So why Arab Sunni population plays important role for West and Israel one side and Iran on the other becoming possible allies againt them one day?
New reality for Iran
As it was mentioned above both Iran and especially Israel are by their ethnic and religious identity a minority in the Middle East. Iran has Sunni minority within its borders and by its political orientation and certain foreign policy “sins” in the eyes of vast Sunni Arab world, like in Syria by supporting Assad’s regime against the Sunni uprising, was marked as the enemy of the Sunni world. After the indirect involvement in Syrian war through sending Shiite warriors, it openly showed to the Sunni Arabs that it is Shiite state fighting for its sectarian goals and that it is ready to favor even Assad’s secular Alawite forces against Sunni uprising. Iraq is another story of one sided support of Iranian regime. Iran is supporting Shiite militias in Iraq, who are almost in constant state of war against local Sunni groups. Influence and favouring Iraqi Shiites through Nouri Al Maliki’s government has created a satellite regime in Baghdad which suppressed Sunnis and indirectly even more strengthened the position of Kurds led by Masoud Barzani in the north, which brought Iraq to the edge of dissolution. Suppression of the Sunnis in Iraq is one of the main reasons why ISIL got the support of the local Sunnis in Iraq and made very easy conquest of Sunni parts of the country. Iranian politics towards Iraq and ISIL factor are now going to lead to a probable further dissolution of Iraq and formation of new states out of the united Iraq. This old evil blood between Sunnis and Shiites that was awakened is probably going to define the future tensions, wars and probably formation of the new borders in the region. Once sectarianism enters the relations in an open and hostile manner, it is pretty hard to appease it again. Probably Iran is going to be seen as an open enemy side in the eyes of Sunnis who are relative majority in the region for a long time to come. It remains to be seen.
New reality for Israel
In the Middle East Israel once had many weak enemies and one relatively strong enemy in form of Iran, with West protecting its back it wasn’t seriously endangered. Besides Western help, Israel once even had a relatively strong friend in the region. This country was Turkey, but that was some time ago and definitely it can’t count on Turkish support anymore. Israelis once used Turkish territory for their fighting jets exercises, because Israeli territory was too small for conducting such exercises. Israel still can count on US and other Western countries that beside many disagreements in the last years still are Israeli allies and if seriously threatened are guarantees of Israeli sovereignty. But even close relations with the West and constant turning blind eye of the Western countries for Israeli atrocities against Palestinian people seems to be shaken. West is constantly making pressure on Israelis to stop building settlements in the West Bank. Even EU forbade the import of products exported from the settlements. In crisis with Iranian nuclear program US was not ready to enter the war for the sake of Israel’s security and they tried their best for war not to occur and it seems that Americans succeeded in that goal. What is for certain is that West slowly started changing its tone when Israel is concerned.
The biggest problem for Israeli politics at the moment is Palestinian question which is not that easy task anymore. Even Palestinians are not disunited as they were before and it seems that accepting independent Palestinian state is becoming more and more popular throughout the world. For example, recently news from Sweden came saying that this country is willing to recognize Palestine as an independent state. This statement sparked diplomatic reaction from Israeli side which led to kind of backtrack from Swedish side when Palestinian sovereignty is concerned. By having a weak Palestinians and only Iranian threat on one side and unconditional help and support from the Western powers and having Turkey which was with Israel by strong military links and economic cooperation with secular government running the country, Israelis did not have much to fear in the region and keeping its image of undefeatable power was actually a piece of cake. But today there is dramatically different Middle East than it was a few years ago. Today almost everything is different for Israel. Not just that they have relatively strong Iran as an enemy, but Israel is now found in a region narrower than it was ever before. Israelis are witnessing Palestinian political factions getting united, both political and armed Sunni uprisings all over the region, Turkish government more Islamic-oriented and becoming hostile towards Israel and openly supporting Palestinian cause, with high potential of being model and factor of unity among the Sunnis in the region. Region saw the quick rise of political Islam in Tunisia, Libya, Egypt and Iraq, on the other side Israel doesn’t have those strong and determined allies as it had before to back them against the potential threats of the uprise. West is busy with its own problems like economic crisis, rise of China, problems with Russia in Ukraine, rise of ISIL in Iraq and Syria and definitely is not ready to deal with problems Israelis are having and causing. So Israel is pretty much left on its own. Today Israel has much to fear in the new Middle East, than it had before. It seems that once hold dominance in the region is coming to its end.
Someone would argue that Israel has nuclear weapons and could easily use them, so by many the bomb is seen as a kind of guarantee against the foreign invasion. Well is it really like that? Can Israelis that easily use the bomb, knowing the fact that Cairo actually is just about three hundred kilometers from Israeli soil or throwing the bomb on Amman maybe, which is just 70 kilometers far from Jerusalem? I don’t think so. Throwing the bomb will directly cause boomerang effect on Israel.
Why an alliance with Iran
Israel is very aware of the fact that it is the small island in the hostile sea of Middle East. Let’s imagine a situation where Israelis are keeping the recent conflict orientated attitude towards other countries in the region especially towards Iran and not being little more pragmatic. Situation probably would evolve in this direction. As it is mentioned Israel is located in a hostile region and having strong enemy in Iran. This enemy of Israel through time learned how to build a nuclear weapon and is openly saying that it is ready to use it against Israel if necessary. Independently built Iranian missiles are capable of reaching Tel Aviv. On the other hand, Iran has Hezbollah guerrilla group which is in close neighborhood of Israel. When Israelis fought in Lebanon against Hezbollah in 2006, this conflict inflicted serious losses to Israeli army. Israelis found it hard to fight a guerrilla war against this fanatical group, which actually had big support even among non-Shiite Lebanese. Iran is a real and serious threat to Israel and they are very much aware of this situation and the West is not really ready to help them. How Israel was desperate was best seen when Benyamin Netanyahu was begging for American to help and was drawing a picture of a bomb to the whole world in UN meeting by saying not much time is left for Iranians to build the bomb. This shows how serious Iran was taken in consideration by Israeli government at the time.
But what today is even more important to be took into a consideration for Israeli side is that they are facing quick rising of Sunni movements across the vast geography of Arab World. Common for almost all Sunni political movements is that they mainly see Israel as an alien state in the region responsible for many atrocities. Having both, strong Shiite Iran and Sunni Arab regimes, plus rising Sunni Turkey with potential of being uniting force behind all Sunni movements across the region, as an enemy is big piece to digest, even for a country like Israel.
When Arab Spring occured in Tunisia, it was mainly seen as a protest for democracy. Western media was joyful to see Arabs started modeling their societies in secular and democratic way, so whole process was named as Arab Spring. In the beginnings, protests looked as a democratic wake up taking place in authoritarian Arab countries and it was hard to foresee what will come out of the protests. In very short period protests spread to other Arab countries like Libya, Egypt, Bahrain, Syria and Yemen. As the movement entered different countries, different form of action for protesters was developed. What was common for all of them that they were protesting against authoritarian regimes. Without entering into the details how things evolved from country to country, what is for sure is the fact that, except for Bahrain and Yemen, Arab Spring led to the rise of political Islam, which was mainly rooted in Sunni Muslim Brotherhood movement, which was for a very long time present throughout Arab World as an illegal opposition. During the dictatorial regimes in the Arab World, the Movement had political infrastructure suppressed by those authoritarian regimes. When state authorities collapsed in those Arab countries Muslim Brotherhood filled that vacuum. Sudden success of movements rooted in Muslim Brotherhood is not big surprise, because people in the region are very conservative and religious, so similar things to happen could be expected even before. It was a matter of time.
When it comes to Israel and Iran vis-a-vis Arab Spring, both countries face undesirable and quick rise of the Political form of Sunni Islam throughout the Arab countries. Iran being Shiites’ advocate in the region and Israel being non-Muslim and repressionist towards the Palestinians now are found in even less friendly environment than ever before.
In second part of the text I would mention more about the rise of Sunni movements and the role of Turkey in the Arab Spring and what possible role Turkey could play in future developments in the Middle East and what implications developments after Arab Spring, which led to the rise of Sunni political movements, have on Israel and Iran.
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